Free Tools

Sponsored Post Delivery Odds Estimator.

Enter what you plan to offer per post and see how often offers at that price end in a published post, how often creators simply never answer, and what brands actually pay at that audience size.

Enter the fee you plan to offer and the audience size you are targeting — the share of offers at that price that end in a published post appears here, next to what creators in that band actually list.

What offers at each price actually deliver

Modelled against the published median flat fee in each follower band.

Offer, relative to the band medianPublishedWhat happens to the rest
50% of median (€80 in 5,000 – 20,000 followers)55%29% never answer, 16% decline.
75% of median (€120 in 5,000 – 20,000 followers)66%22% never answer, 12% decline.
100% of median (€160 in 5,000 – 20,000 followers)76%14% never answer, 10% decline.
125% of median (€200 in 5,000 – 20,000 followers)87%7% never answer, 6% decline.

Shown for 5,000 – 20,000 followers; the estimator above runs the same curve against whichever band you pick.

How the odds are modelled

Offer strength

your offer / median flat fee listed in that follower band

Everything keys off this one ratio. An offer at the median is a normal booking; at half the median it is a message most creators will not reply to.

Published share

34% + 42% x min(offer strength, 1.6)

The curve flattens above the median because past a fair price the blockers stop being money — they are calendar, topic fit and usage rights.

Frequently asked questions.

Why do so many offers end in silence rather than a no?

Because a low offer is not a negotiation to a creator, it is a signal that the brief will be more work than it is worth. Declining costs them a reply; ignoring costs them nothing. The share that never answers is the clearest thing this estimator shows.

What is a booked post versus a published post?

Booked means the creator accepted the brief. Published means the post went live. Every budget that plans on booked posts overstates what it will get, which is why the budget planner works from the published number.

How do I raise the published share without raising the fee?

Narrow the brief. Creators publish faster when the topic is one they were going to write about anyway, the deadline is a week rather than two days, and the usage rights are organic-only.

Where do these percentages come from?

From this project's own seeded marketplace, not from naano.com. The curve is anchored on the median flat fee each follower band lists here, so the numbers move if the dataset does.

Stop guessing at the price.

Every creator in the marketplace publishes a flat fee per post upfront. You see the number before you send the brief, and you pay on publication.

Browse the marketplace

Plan the whole budget

The budget planner turns a total budget into published posts at these same delivery rates, and gives you the true cost per published post.

Open the budget planner